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My tasks vary from day to day, but Mondays tend to consist heavily of chart-making.
That’s because we record Animal Spirits and WAYT early in the week at The Compound. You don’t see it, but there’s plenty of prep that has to happen before the shows in order to deliver an A+ experience. Making charts fits into that prep.
Rarely do I stumble upon a data point that is so insane, I simply can’t wait for our audience to see it.
But tonight is one of those nights.
Jokingly, in the office today, I brought up charting Nvidia’s forward PE vs. the S&P 500 Value index’s forward PE to Michael.
In my head, it couldn’t be possible that the most important company in the entire world, at the forefront of the most important technology in the entire world, could be trading at a cheaper valuation than the S&P 500 VALUE index.
But here we are. On November 2nd, 2026, that is exactly what is happening.
Behold:
The light blue line is Nvidia’s forward PE ratio and the dark blue line is the S&P 500 Value Index’s forward PE ratio.
Here’s the premium/discount of Nvidia vs. the Value Index.
Literal lol. Nvidia trades at a 21% discount.
Me later (minus the loafers, not my style).
We can argue whether the earnings estimates are right or wrong. I’ve written about this before, but most of the time they are right. Here’s your reminder:
I have no foresight into what Nvidia will report at this time next year, but the market is already pricing a slowdown in growth.
What if reality turns out to be better than anticipated?
Here’s the bottom line: this is either the fattest pitch that AI bulls have seen within the entire cycle, or the market will make me look stupid a year from now.
Pick your side. I pass no judgement.
Just know that for me, it’s a 3-1 count, bases loaded, and I’m swinging.
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