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Three quick charts for you today. I recognize the posts are short. My goal is to convey as much information as possible in the least amount of words. If it feels like a quick read and you learn a few things, then I’ve done my job.
It’s Q4 in a midterm year which means it’s time to talk seasonality.
Out of all the quarters within the election cycle, Q4 in midterm years are my favorite because the data tells an inarguable, bullish story.
And I have the charts to support it.
Below you’re looking at the average Q4 S&P 500 return since 1950 by year within the election cycle. That second bar from the left is Midterm years.
Midterm years see the strongest Q4 on average, gaining +6.6%.
Next I’m showing you the average Q4 path within each of these years.
The light blue line would be 2026’s historical analog. +6.6% in Q4 would put the S&P 500 right around 8,156 by year-end (using the 9/30/2026 closing price of 7,652).
Lastly, I’m breaking out the Q4 return in each individual midterm year going back to 1950.
In 16 out of 19 years (84%), the S&P 500 saw gains in Q4.
Today the S&P 500 made a new all-time high after 36 trading days of chop, right on cue for the seasonally bullish time of year. Consider this your reminder that the strength is normal. And more new highs into year-end would be too.
Thank you for reading!
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