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Congrats.
You’ve survived 1,004 trading days of the current bull market.
Someday I’ll explain to my kids that during this period, the most revolutionary technology known to mankind was released and somehow the stock market got cheaper in the process.
But that’s a story for another day.
Today’s story is far more celebratory as the bull market just turned four years old.
And I have four charts to help visualize the wild ride it’s been.
The S&P 500 is up 118% since October 12th, 2022.
But I want to remind you all that those gains have come with a significant amount of volatility.
We’ve had eight separate pullbacks of at least 5% in the S&P 500 since the low. We were a percentage point away from a bear market (by the traditional definition) in April, 2025.
The ride has been anything but smooth.
Investors had to wait 318 trading days for the index to make a new all-time-high after the October 12, 2022 low.
But since then, the index has posted a total of 124 new all-time-highs through yesterday’s close.
Over this same period of 124 new highs, I could have come up with an equal number of reasons to sell.
And you would have been paid to ignore every reason I gave you.
Next I’m showing you the S&P 500’s forward 12M PE ratio vs. the forward 12M earnings estimate for the S&P 500 since the low.
Valuations are sharply off their highs as earnings estimates continue to rip higher. If I could show you one visual to help explain this bull market, it would be the one above. It’s an earnings story. What else would you want to see?
And lastly, here’s your manual for bull markets. It’s a favorite of the advisors we work with at Exhibit A because it helps contextualize the current bull market vs. past runs.
The grey bar will continue updating every day as the new data comes in.
The average bull cycle gains +192%. We’re at +118% today.
So congrats again on four years. The next reason to sell is probably already in your inbox, but the average bull gain is still well ahead of us. Invest accordingly.
You’ve probably heard. But if you haven’t, here’s the most exciting event of the year.
TCAF LIVE on Broadway!!
Look at the lineup below. Are you not entertained?
Tickets are live and running out. Like actually, they’re disappearing fast.
Grab your ticket now and come join us on December 8th (doors open at 5:45 PM) for an all-timer in the Big Apple. I’m so pumped. If you’re coming, give me a shout!
Thank you for reading!
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