You heard?

Probably, assuming you’re as glued to the screens as I am.

What happened to peacefully enjoying the last few weeks of summer? Can’t escape it.

Hand up, I fell victim to the flashing headlines and stopped on a park bench mid walk on a beautiful Saturday afternoon to read the piece. My head was buried in my phone for 20 minutes. Not proud of it, man enough to say it.

Today you’ll be reading and hearing from experts across the industry on Dario’s warning that “We Must Pace the Frontier” in our development of new AI models.

I’m not here to rehash every point he made in detail, but here are my takeaways:

1/ The AI models themselves are being used to create even better AI models. He calls this recursive self-improvement.

2/ This self-improvement has an equal possibility of being used for good and bad things. Good things = curing cancer. Bad things = cyber attacks. Just two examples. You get the point.

3/ He proposes further guardrails and oversight to regulate the development of these new models and how they are used.

4/ He calls on other democratic countries and leaders in the space to work together to pace the improvement of these models.

5/ He successfully rage-baits anyone who got long semis in recent days. You can include me in this cohort of investors.

I’m not here to comment on the merit of Dario’s argument. You’ve already heard dozens of opinions, probably, so I will spare you mine. It wouldn’t be groundbreaking anyways. Not worth your time.

Instead I want to explain to you how I do my best to find signal in the market. I’ve always wanted to write this post but was looking for the perfect opportunity to do it.

The CEO of Anthropic dropping a bomb on the AI narrative and a 6:00 AM flight to Huntington Beach provided me that opportunity.

This grid helps explain how I think about markets.

First I want you to look at the left side of the table and read “when stocks fall” now look at the top of the table “on good news” now look at the corresponding square “that’s bearish.”

That’s how I want you to read each of the grids on the table.

Here’s each spelled out entirely:

Where do we fall in the grid today?

I’m writing this at 10:26 AM ET and so far, stocks are falling on bad news. There’s no signal in that. That’s what should happen.

But if we rally into the close? That’s signal.

It’s the Wisdom of Crowds saying “nope, this doesn’t matter” and pricing assets accordingly.

In other words, it’s not the news that matters. It’s how the market digests and reacts to the news that is so important. And that’s where the signal lies.

I’ll be glued to the screens, again on a beautiful sunny day, but this time in California.

Can’t escape it. Never a dull moment.

I’m writing to you 30,000 feet up en route to Future Proof 2026 in Huntington Beach, CA.

I’m so excited to see everyone. If you’re attending and we happen to cross paths, tap me on the shoulder and say hello! Would love to chat.

When I’m not at breakthrus I’ll be at the Exhibit A booth, number 626, which is located in Zone 3. If you’re a current client of Exhibit A or interested in learning more about the service, come find me! And if you can’t attend the conference, but would still like to book a demo, you can schedule time with me here. September is nearly booked, but plenty of availability in October.

PLUS: We have 100 bucket hats and dozens of golf towels. I know they’ll go quick (they did last year) so swing by and grab yours tomorrow!

Thank you for reading!

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