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Are we meme’ing again?
That's the question on everyone's mind. Or at least mine, because I just watched Virgin Galactic triple in eight trading days, then get cut in half overnight after investors realized they’d mistaken its ticker for SpaceX’s.
Is this what we’re doing in 2026? I thought we learned our lesson in 2021. Some things never change.
But is this 2021 all over again? Not quite. The mania in 2021 lived in the smallest, junkiest names. Today the action is at the very top. Berkshire just put $10 billion into Google's $80 billion raise, and SpaceX's IPO alone is set to create more exit value than every VC-backed IPO of the past decade combined.
The top-heavy action is the clearest in Semis. Look at these returns, folks.
+64% over the past 44 trading days (since the 3/30/2026 short-term low).
+796% over the past 912 trading days (since the 10/12/2022 bear market low).
You’re not crazy to think about 2021. These stocks are ripping in an unprecedented way.
But here’s the key difference: a Reddit thread can’t move Micron’s market cap $400 billion in two weeks, nor can it send Intel up 175% in five months.
Let me say less and show more. I’m articulating exactly what I mean in the chart below.
This one takes a second. Let me explain it step by step.
The chart on the left and chart on the right represent two different snapshots in time.
On the left you have Russell 3000 stock performance during the 2021 meme stock mania and on the right you have Russell 3000 stock performance this year.
I’ve bucketed the performance in both both periods into 20 groups based on size. That’s the X axis. Smallest in bucket 1. Largest in bucket 20.
In 2021, you’ll notice that it was the smallest companies, the mini bubbles, that had the highest returns. That was GameStop, AMC, the meme stocks.
In 2026 it’s the largest companies that have generated the returns. Think Micron, AMD, Western Digital.
That’s the difference: size.
My Super Bowl
Tonight at 5PM EST, Sean Russo and I are joining Michael on an all new edition of What Are Your Thoughts?
Sean and I have impossible shoes to fill with Josh being out but we’ve been preparing all day and are ready to take have some fun.
For those coming, see you in a few hours!
That’s all for today. Thank you so much for reading and I hope everyone has a great weekend.